Very Strong El Niño May Intensify the Risk of Compound Climate Disasters

Context

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has cautioned about the development of a potentially strong El Niño event, which could continue until February 2027. Forecasts indicate unusually high sea surface temperatures over the Pacific Ocean.

The warning assumes greater significance in the context of recurring climate related disasters across South Asia, where multiple hazards can interact and produce disproportionate impacts on communities, agriculture and livelihoods.

Key Highlights

• A strong El Niño can influence global atmospheric circulation, leading to significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns across different regions.
• For India, its effects need to be assessed alongside the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), regional sea surface temperatures and the behaviour of the Indian monsoon.
• Extreme heat, drought, intense rainfall and agricultural stress may occur together or sequentially, creating compound and cascading risks.
• The experience of South Asia highlights the importance of regional cooperation, integrated early warning systems and climate adaptation, rather than relying solely on isolated national responses.

Key Concepts

• El Niño: A recurring climatic phenomenon characterised by abnormal warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can influence atmospheric circulation and weather patterns across the globe.
• ENSO: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon that consists of three broad phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A climate phenomenon determined by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. A positive IOD can, under certain conditions, help support the Indian monsoon and partly offset the influence of El Niño.
• Compound Event: A situation in which two or more climate or weather hazards occur simultaneously or in succession, potentially amplifying their combined impact.
• WMO: The World Meteorological Organization is a specialised agency of the United Nations responsible for international cooperation and coordination in weather, climate and water related sciences and services.

Way Forward

• Develop sector specific climate forecasts for agriculture, healthcare, water resources and the power sector.
• Strengthen preparedness by pre positioning drought and flood relief resources in vulnerable regions.
• Protect climate sensitive livelihoods through targeted adaptation measures and stronger social-security mechanisms.
• Improve data sharing and climate information exchange across South Asia, despite geopolitical differences.
• Ensure that early warnings are translated into timely local action, particularly at the community and district levels.
• Promote integrated disaster planning that accounts for the possibility of multiple and cascading climate hazards, rather than treating each disaster in isolation.