Study: Rainfall in Eastern Indus Basins Declined by 20% Since 1951
Context
A first-of-its-kind study on the impact of climate change on the Indus River System has revealed that the catchments of the eastern rivers, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, recorded nearly a 20% decline in rainfall between 1951 and 2024, while precipitation over the western river basins remained largely stable.
Facts
- The western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, experienced only about a 6% decline in rainfall, which was statistically insignificant.
- Under the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) are allocated to India, whereas the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) are primarily allocated to Pakistan.
- The study reinforces India’s demand to review and renegotiate the treaty in light of changing climatic conditions, demographic pressures and growing clean energy requirements.
- Following the 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, India placed the treaty “in abeyance” until Pakistan takes credible steps to end cross-border terrorism.
Way Forward
The persistent decline in rainfall across the eastern Indus basin strengthens the case for revisiting the 1960 water-sharing framework to address climate-induced water stress and rising water demand.
Concept: Indus Waters Treaty (1960)
- Signed between India and Pakistan with the World Bank serving as the broker.
- Provides exclusive rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) to India.
- Allocates the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) mainly to Pakistan, while permitting India limited non-consumptive uses, such as run-of-the-river hydropower projects, on these rivers.
- Disputes under the treaty are resolved through a Neutral Expert or a Court of Arbitration.
- The term “in abeyance” does not exist in the treaty text and represents India’s unilateral position adopted after the 2025 Pahalgam attack.