Deficient Southwest Monsoon and Its Impact on India

Missed call : India must brace itself for a deficient southwest monsoon 

Context : Core Message

The article highlights concerns over a deficient Southwest Monsoon and its potential impacts on agriculture, water security and the Indian economy.

Prelims-Oriented Pointers

1. 1. Concerns have emerged over the possibility of a deficient Southwest Monsoon.
   2. Rainfall shortfalls could affect agriculture, water availability and rural livelihoods.
   3. Despite the early onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala, seasonal rainfall may remain below the Long Period Average (LPA).
   4. Northwest, central and peninsular India are likely to experience rainfall deficits.
   5. El Niño conditions continue to pose risks to monsoon performance and rainfall distribution.
   6. The Southwest Monsoon contributes about 70–75% of India’s annual rainfall.
   7. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is responsible for monsoon forecasting.

• El Niño refers to abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

1. The Long Period Average (LPA) is the benchmark used by IMD to assess monsoon rainfall.
2. The kharif season begins with the onset of the Southwest Monsoon.
3. Major kharif crops include rice, maize, cotton and pulses.

Mains-Relevant Information

• Monsoon Outlook

• The article warns of a potentially deficient Southwest Monsoon.
• Rainfall deficits are expected in several parts of the country.

• Role of El Niño

• El Niño conditions may weaken monsoon rainfall.
• They can affect both the amount and distribution of rainfall.

• Agricultural Impact

• Below-normal rainfall may reduce agricultural productivity.
• Kharif cultivation remains highly dependent on monsoon rainfall.

• Water & Economic Impact

• Monsoon variability affects water security and reservoir levels.
• It also influences food inflation, rural livelihoods and economic growth.