Below-Normal July Rainfall Forecast by IMD
Context
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall during July 2026, with rainfall expected to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The southwest monsoon has recorded a cumulative rainfall deficit of nearly 40%, largely due to the influence of El Niño.
- Below-Normal July Rainfall Forecast by IMD: IMD has warned that deficient rainfall during July : the most crucial month of the southwest monsoon season could adversely affect kharif agriculture, reservoir storage, hydropower generation, groundwater recharge, and drinking water availability. It may also increase the risk of heat stress and drought-like conditions in several regions.
Reason :
- Low June Rainfall: India received only 99.5 mm of rainfall in June 2026, making it the fifth-lowest June rainfall since 1901 and the lowest since 2014. The deficit was primarily due to weak low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal.
- Outlook Ahead: Although rainfall is expected to improve during the first week of July because of emerging weather systems, the broader seasonal outlook remains weak, underscoring the need for efficient water management, crop contingency planning, and conservation measures.
Key Concepts
Long Period Average (LPA)
- LPA is the average rainfall received over a standard 50-year reference period and serves as the benchmark for classifying monsoon rainfall.
- IMD classifies:
- 96 – 104% of LPA as Normal rainfall.
- Below 94% of LPA as Below-Normal rainfall.
El Niño
- El Niño is the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- It weakens the Walker Circulation, often suppressing the southwest monsoon over India.
- Major impacts include reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, increased drought risk, and adverse effects on agriculture, water resources, and food security.