Himalayan Glacier Loss Could Put 21.5% of India’s GDP at Risk
Context
A recent assessment estimates that nearly ₹64.8 lakh crore, equivalent to 21.5% of India’s FY2024 GDP, is directly or indirectly linked to ecosystem services provided by the Himalayan region. The estimate takes into account economic output generated in Himalayan states, downstream activities dependent on water resources, and associated supply chain effects.
Key Highlights
- The Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra river systems are crucial for agriculture, urban settlements, industries and hydropower generation across India.
- Although the Himalayan region accounts for approximately 18% of India’s geographical area, it was associated with nearly 35% of the disasters considered in the assessment.
- Peak water refers to the stage when glacier melt reaches its maximum level. Beyond this point, declining ice reserves can eventually result in reduced meltwater availability.
- Black carbon deposited on snow and ice reduces surface reflectivity, or albedo, and increases the absorption of solar radiation, thereby accelerating glacier and snowmelt.
- Transitioning to cleaner and more efficient brick kiln technologies can help reduce black carbon emissions as well as fuel consumption.
- The estimated 21.5% economic dependence should not be interpreted as a prediction that this share of GDP will disappear. It represents a scenario based assessment of India’s economic dependence on Himalayan ecosystem services.
Way Forward
India needs a basin level approach to climate adaptation, supported by systematic glacier monitoring and climate resilient infrastructure.
Measures to reduce black carbon emissions should target major sources such as brick kilns, household cooking, transportation and agricultural residue burning. Public investment and financial planning should also account for the long term risks associated with disasters, water insecurity and climate induced changes in the Himalayan region.